NEWCOMERS TO THE BATTLEFIELD, CYBER WARFARE AND NEW GENERATION OF DRONES
By Lady Olga Maitland
President, Defence and Security Forum
Warfare has always pushed the boundaries in innovation. Be it in the First World War with the arrival of heavy military tanks, fighter planes, poison gas and artillery. Second World War, apart from bombs of every level of lethality, there was the atomic bomb.
The Gulf War brought early militarisation of space for intelligence and targeting. Outer space was brought in.
CYBER WARFARE
Today we have moved into cyber warfare, a domain which underpins ability to exploit all others. And a new generation of drones which are agile and lethal.
Ukraine has been a vivid example of this new reality. Many of the most critical battles occur in silence , waged by individuals hunched over keyboards rapping out codes not rounds of rifles as they guide drones to their targets.
The reality is that we are all facing a Wake up Call. In the UK, our House of Lords published a report pointing out that space, cyber. AI and electromagnetic warfare are closely interlinked and have featured heavily in the Ukraine war.
Essentially cyber warfare underpins the ability exploit all others.
Just look at the digital battlefield. In the physical real world, we quantity conflicts in terms of territory gained or lost.
In cyberspace, the territory is boundless. A single keystroke can cross the globe and a well crafted piece of malware could bring a nation to its knees.
We have seen only too often government agencies, hospitals, airlines, transport, energy facilities, critical assets, close down and faced with a blank screen.
In Ukraine, we have seen this power wielded with surgical precision. Russian cyber operatives , they call them digital commandos, have infiltrated Ukrainian networks, seeking not land or resources, but something just as valuable, intelligence data. In short the new currency of warfare.
One of the most striking examples of cyber warfare was the attack by Russia on the US satellite system widely used in Ukraine, Viasat. Twenty four hours before the invasion in February 2022, they disrupted internet access across the country, affecting 24million people, and in the process caught Germany energy companies and French services too. The blackout lasted two weeks, hitting Ukraine’s command and control infrastructure.
In an instant people lost the ability to communicate, access information or call for help. It was as if an entire country suddenly went silent.
Yet, the Ukrainians have fought back. Talent beavering away from bedrooms, tiny offices and so on, weathering countless attacks and fending them off. They have been learning, adapting and emerging stronger.
They have transformed themselves into a cyber fortress, its digital defences as formidable as any tank battalion.
Above all, the prime concern is to protect critical infrastructure. A successful attack on a power grid or water supply can be as devastating as any bomb. In turn, they have formed their own attack capability.
The result is that this year alone, Russia’s banking sector has been closed, cash could not be drawn from ATMs. Internet providers shut down. Airports , state institutions , transport, telecommunications, banks, ATMs, and private sector also impacted.
Aim. Impede and destabilise.
The reality is that modern warfare goes beyond bombs and bullets, but with the keyboard and bytes.
This is an ever evolving threat ….a country can be brought to its knees by a strike of a key from a computer.
The lessons from Ukraine will shape the future. We are on the threshold of challenges our predecessors could not have imagined. Cyber capabilities are a critical component of national power and attack.
AI
And with it, we should not overlook how the Ukraine war is the first international conflict in which the opposing sides have actively developed Artificial Intelligence, AI.
It is now the norm for AI solutions to be used for geospatial intelligence, operations with unmanned systems, enhancing military decisions.
AI working with other technologies is producing more accurate, better connected and faster long range weapons – ultimately more destructive.
Ukraine has had to be agile in ramping up its capability in AI, much of this in the private sector. And with it, AI has been an asset in flagging disinformation, fake video clips. It can assist in using predictive AI to schedule logistics and maintenance, it can guide drone and missile systems, , consolidate data, use robots to clear mines and unexploded ordnance.
It can tap enemy communications networks, and strengthen data encryption, while analysing, identifying and classifying threats.
The list is endless, and both sides are well aware of the value of AI solutions.
DRONE
Drone warfare should not be underestimated. Although not new in concept, today’s drone combat is changing warfare. Today both Russians and Ukrainians are raining down drones of all shapes and sizes, long range to tactical.
As a guest in Istanbul, I must acknowledge the skill and ingenuity of the Turkish Bayraktar. And salute the fact a factory has now been built outside Kiev to produce more of its models TB2 a nd TB3., Invaluable to the armoury of the Ukrainians.
But the Ukrainians themselves are producing a new generation of drones. The ‘First Person View’ FPV drones themselves which are changing modern warfare. Low cost, fast to produce, (mostly in the private sector in small factories), manoeuvrable, they can be controlled three kilometres from the front line with astonishing accuracy. They are powerful with Strong attack and reconnaissance capability.
Some are known as Dragons for its ability to drop moulten lead capable of burning through tanks, and artillery plus clearing forest covering.
The outcome is that the Russian Shahed drones based on Iranian technology have declining effectiveness as the Ukrainians have developed the capability to intercept them, FPVs being among them.
The other end of the scale to the FPVs is the new Palianytsia missile-drone launched in August. It can fly further and faster into Russia and unlike a cruise missile can change course mid-flight. Moreover, as it made by the Ukrainians they do not have to rely on foreign donor powers for permission to use them.
This is not a magic wand to change the course of the war. But an example of how Ukraine is focusing its limited resources on domestic production. Today they are visibly expanding in scale and type the production of drones, routinely hitting targets deep inside Russia, sometimes over a 1,000 kilometres from their border.
Russian officials are tight-lipped over the impact of the Ukrainians air offensives but there are indications that the Kremlin is concerned.As indeed how the war is affecting their economy.
CONCLUSION
Turkey is a member of NATO. We are long standing allies and that will not change.
We share common challenges.
Cyber warfare, AI and sophisticated drones have demonstrated that warfare has moved beyond the physical battlefield.
Today, we all must have a better understanding on how threats emerge. Cyber attacks are part of our lives.
We all need to be better prepared, have a deeper understanding of cooperation and sharing knowledge.
A cyber attack is not an IT issue. It is strategic. The finance sector, health, energy, and so on are all deeply vulnerable.
Warfare is now in our homes, thousands away from the official scene of combat.
We have entered a new era; the urgency for close cooperation between allies has never been so urgent.