Speech by L. Zigmantaitė, Chargée d‘Affaires of Lithuania
Delivered on 24 July at the Defence and Security Forum
Ladies and gentlemen,
I will start with an obvious observation: we are facing a security paradox: The Baltic region has never in its history enjoyed a stronger collective security, but at the same time, we have never faced a bigger threat.
When the Baltic States regained their statehood in the early 90s, we saw NATO and the EU as the only way to ensure our security, even our survival. For two decades, we have strengthened our national security, increased resilience to
external threats, and contributed to NATO’s overall strength and capabilities.
However, the project of a whole, free, and peaceful Europe remains incomplete. Some were naïve and tried to ignore the security threats posed by Russia. Others wanted to avoid escalation.
And that is why today we are witnessing the rise of Russia and other authoritarian regimes that now pose a threat to the principles that NATO has safeguarded for so long.
It is almost certain that the major authoritarian powers will continue uniting their efforts to challenge the rules-based international order, intensifying their aggressiveness towards the West, and disrupting the Western security architecture. So we need to ask ourselves: are we truly prepared to defend our core values and principles? Are we equipped well enough to confront and overcome the threats posed by adversaries across all domains?
Putin shows no signs of willingness to de-escalate. He moves full speed to reconstitute and even scale up Russia’s armed forces. He consolidates military alliances with other autocrats around the globe, that enable Russia to continue
its war against Ukraine, to evade sanctions and to threaten Western Alliances.
On the contrary – Russia looks for opportunities to escalate even further with hybrid attacks and hostile kinetic activities inside NATO territory. We have recently witnessed increased sabotage, violence, cyber and electronic interference – not only in the Baltic region, but across Europe, including the UK. Such activities are bound to intensify, and it is only a matter of time till fatalities start appearing.
That is why our Alliance must urgently prepare measures of response, – before it is too late. And we must make sure that Russia and its proxies clearly understand that any attempt to destroy rules based international order will not succeed.
The security of Europe is inseparably linked to Ukraine’s victory. Should Ukraine fall or be forced to sign an imposed peace agreement, it would be a defeat for us all. The Kremlin would then immediately begin a countdown to a new attack, potentially targeting NATO’s Eastern Flank, especially the Baltic Region.
I refrain from speculating how much time we have, but we cannot rely on the strategic assumption that Russia will surrender.
I do not rule out the possibility that the next two to four years will be the most dangerous. Not only because of how quickly Russia is rebuilding and building its capabilities, but also because as Western defence efforts gain momentum, Russia may view this period as its last window of opportunity to dismantle our security architecture.
Ukraine’s victory remains the most viable strategy to significantly reduce the threat of Russia.
Therefore, today we must act urgently and take all necessary actions to support Ukraine. Ukraine should get anything it needs – ammunition, long-range artillery, air defence systems, etc., – and get it fast. Any restrictions on where and how Ukraine can use these weapons must also be dropped.
Lithuania is making a tangible contribution as well – we have committed to provide Ukraine’s defence and security sector with a yearly contribution of 0,25 percent of our GDP. A similar contribution by every Ally would lead us to the soonest possible victory of Ukraine.
It is also crucial that NATO remains strong and united – not only in purpose, but also in action – ready to defend every inch of its territory.
A couple of weeks ago, our leaders met in Washington, D.C., and agreed to continue strengthening deterrence and defence posture across all domains. We have new regional defence plans, we are developing air defence and other key capabilities, we are strengthening NATO’s Eastern Flank, and we are making our societies more resilient.
The UK plays a crucial role in NATO by deploying combat-ready forces to Estonia and Poland. This sends a message of deterrence: any hostile actions will be met with a unified and powerful response.
Deterrence may be costly, but it is cheaper than having to actually fight a war. 23 out of 32 NATO Allies, including the UK, are now spending over 2% of their
GDP on defence. Lithuania is spending over 3%, and there are even calls to further increase our defence spending to 4%.
If you want peace, prepare for war. Putin is not going to change; he will continue bombing children’s hospitals, orchestrating hybrid attacks, plotting to
dismantle democracies and implementing his imperial ambitions.
That is why today we must step out of our comfort zones in the interest of national security. If we fail to do so, the comfort zone may soon simply disappear altogether.
Thank you.