The Baltic Balancing Act Over the Threat of Russia
Speakers: Sir Malcolm Rifkind KCMG (Moderator), H.E. Ms. Lina Zigmantaite.
By Emily Claessen
24th of July 2024
The discussion on “The Baltic Balancing Act Over the Threat of Russia,” delved deep into the complex security challenges that the Baltic region faces in the current geopolitical climate. Ms. Zigmantaite began the discussion by highlighting a security paradox: while the Baltic states have never been more secure collectively due to NATO and EU membership, they also face an unprecedented threat from an increasingly aggressive Russia.
She noted that after regaining statehood in the early 1990s, the Baltic states turned to NATO and the EU for security and survival, contributing to the strengthening of their national defences and resilience over the years. Despite this, the vision of a wholly free and peaceful Europe remains incomplete. Ms. Zigmantaite pointed out the naivety and hesitancy of some Western nations in addressing the Russian threat, which has emboldened Moscow and other authoritarian regimes to challenge the rules-based international order.
The discussion moved towards the implications of Russia’s escalating aggression, particularly its hybrid attacks and the intensification of military alliances with other autocratic nations in order to continue the war, evade sanctions, and threaten Western alliances. Ms. Zigmantaite emphasised that NATO must be fully prepared to respond to and deter these threats, highlighting that the security of Europe is closely tied to Ukraine’s success in the ongoing conflict. She believes that a failure to support Ukraine, even if the war results in a peace agreement, would embolden Russia, and could lead to broader threats, especially to NATO’s Eastern Flank, including the Baltic region.
Furthermore, she stressed the importance of NATO’s unity in purpose and action, praising recent efforts to bolster deterrence and defence capabilities across the alliance, with Lithuania playing a critical role in this effort, spending over 3% of their GDP on defence. Ms. Zigmantaite underscored that while deterrence is costly, it is far less expensive than the alternative — war. She concluded with a powerful call for increased defence spending and a collective commitment to supporting Ukraine, reinforcing the idea that if peace is desired, preparations for war are essential, stating “[…] We must step out of our comfort zones in the interest of national security. If we fail to do so, the comfort zone may soon simply disappear altogether”.
Sir Rifkind asked an important question – in the event of a crisis, could NATO reinforce the Baltic states quickly and effectively? According to him, NATO’s capability to deploy troops and heavy equipment to the region within 24 hours is reassuring. Controlling the Baltic states is vital for countering any immediate threats. However, Sir Rifkind raised a significant question – what if the US cannot be relied upon? In this scenario, Sir Rifkind believes the most important action would be to focus on the effective use of resources and the ability to adapt strategies, rather than simply increasing military spending. He also warned that Russia may not necessarily invade NATO territory directly but could test the will of the alliance through indirect means, creating a complex challenge for the West.
Several questions were raised by the attendees, addressing critical themes such as Russia’s weaknesses, Putin’s objectives, technological aspects of the conflict, Western responsibilities in global security, the sustainability of Western support for Ukraine, money laundering in the UK, potential outcomes of a peace treaty, the support of Russian minorities, and Western economic responses to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
On the question of Putin’s objectives, it was noted that he aims to either fully occupy Ukraine or to install a pro-Kremlin government to replace Zelensky. Another point highlighted was the growing cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, which is increasingly impacting global stability and the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine. On NATO’s ability to reinforce the Baltic states, the costs and logistical challenges are significant, and European countries like the UK are struggling to balance defence spending with other domestic priorities.
Ms. Zigmantaite, on the other hand, shifted the focus to the internal dynamics within the Baltic states themselves. She noted the significant presence of Russian minorities, particularly in Estonia and Latvia, where they constitute around 30% of the population, compared to 6-8% in Lithuania. She also underscored the efforts being made by these states to bolster the resilience of their minority populations. For example, Lithuania has banned Russian propaganda from its television and radio channels, a move mirrored by similar measures in Latvia and Estonia. However, Ms. Zigmantaite stressed that it is not enough to just take these steps. It is crucial to ensure that all sides of the political spectrum remain focused on the situation in the Baltics, especially given the broader geopolitical implications.
Reflecting on the international dimension, Ms. Zigmantaite noted some of the positive decisions taken during Trump’s first term, such as the bolstering of US military presence in Poland. Given Trump’s approach as a dealmaker, she suggested that framing Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat as beneficial to the United States might sway his actions in favour of a stronger stance against Russia. Moreover, Ms. Zigmantaite warned that allowing Putin to retain any territory in Ukraine could embolden further Russian aggression, a scenario that is being closely observed not only by Western nations but also by China.
Lady Olga added a final note to the discussion, stating that Russia is exploiting the perceived disorganisation within the West, a situation exacerbated by events like the US elections. Lady Olga further pointed out that Europe must send a clear message to the United States — that being a superpower carries responsibilities. She warned about the growing threat of hybrid warfare, stating that the CrowdStrike crash is a lesson for Europe to prepare for similar attacks potentially orchestrated by Russia. Public communication has been lacking, and without a clear understanding of the challenges we face, it will be difficult to confront them effectively.
In conclusion, the discussion painted a comprehensive picture of the current situation in the Baltic states. While NATO’s rapid response capabilities are a strong deterrent, the complexities of internal resilience and the broader geopolitical landscape require a concerted and complex approach. The insights provided by Sir Rifkind, Ms. Zigmantaite, and Lady Olga highlight the need for both immediate action and long-term strategic planning to ensure the stability and security of the region.
Emily Claessen, Rapporteur